液晶电视机供应链价格波及效应的实证研究

Empirical Research of Price Ripple Effects in LCDTV Supply Chain

为研究面板商占据液晶供应链主导地位的机理和生产商频繁面临倾销指控的原因,本文基于Enders和Siklos的门限自回归(TAR)和动态门限自回归(M-TAR)的方法,研究液晶电视机供应链中面板价格与成品价格之间的长期关系,利用纠错模型分析了其短期冲击特性,并借助自助法的仿真验证该模型的有效性。研究发现液晶电视机成品价格的上涨能够更快地传递给面板价格,面板商借助价格不对称调整产生的波及效应占据主导地位,使国内生产商陷入倾销指控的困境。

To study the mechanism of panel supplier dominating the LCDTV supply chain and the causes of increasing dumping on manufacturers, based on the method of threshold autoregressive （TAR） and momentum-TAR （M-TAR） which was proposed by Enders and Siklos, this paper studies the long-term relationship of prices between the panel and the finished product in LCD TV supply chain, and uses the error correction model （ECM） to analyze its short-term impact characteristics and the method of bootstrap simulation results to illustrate the validity of the model. Our empirical results indicate that the rise of LCD TV prices of finished product can pass to the panel prices more quickly. Panel suppliers stay in the dominant position with the ripple effect caused by asymmetric adjustment, leaving domestic manufacturers in the dilemma of facing charges in the dumping.