我国税收结构变动的经济增长效应分析——兼论税收结构变动与区域经济非均衡增长

Economic Growth Effects of China's Tax Structure Changes——With Additional Study on Regional Economic Unbalanced Development

本文在内生增长理论框架下分析税收结构与生产性支出对经济增长率的影响,运用我国1997-2006年29个省份的数据,通过面板数据模型,考察了税收结构变动对经济增长的影响及其在三大地区间的差异。本研究区别于其他研究的主要有两点:一是实证分析中考虑了政府预算约束;二是同时考察了收入不变和收入增加时的税收结构变动。研究表明,我国所得税和财产税份额的上升并没有阻碍经济增长率的上升,但税收结构变动的经济增长效应在三大区域间存在显著差异:所得税份额的上升扩大了东西地区间的差距,而财产税份额的上升却缩小了东西地区间的差距。为促进经济均衡增长,今后税收结构调整方向应为在不降低所得税份额的情况下提高财产税份额。

This paper analyzes the growth effects of tax structure and productive expenditure in an endogenous growth model. Using panel data of 29 provinces from 1997 to 2006 in China, the economic growth effect and regional differences of changes in the tax structure have been investigated. Compared with previous researches, the main differences are taking government budget constraint into account in the empirical study and investigating tax structure changes both in the condition of increased revenue and unchanged revenue. The results indicate that the increases of income tax share and property tax share do not hinder economic growth, but the growth effect of tax structure changes may be quite different among regions： the rise of income tax share expands regional gap, while the rise of the property tax share narrows the gap between east and west. To promote balanced development of regional economy, the future direction of tax structure adjustment may focus on increasing property tax share without reducing the income tax share.