湖南省1995-2010年能源消费碳排放变化的因素分解分析

Factors Decomposition Analysis on Variations of Carbon Emission of the Terminal Energy Consumption from 1995 to 2010 in Hunan Province

基于扩展的Kaya恒等式,应用LMDI分解方法,文章定量分析了人口规模、经济规模、产业结构、技术进步和能源结构5个因素对湖南省1995-2010年能源消费碳排放变化的影响。结果表明:经济规模效应、技术进步效应、产业结构效应和人口规模效应是正向影响因素,其对湖南省16年间能源消费碳排放总量变化的贡献率分别为41.15%、37.84%、12.86%和9.46%;能源结构效应是负向影响因素,其贡献率仅为-1.3%。湖南省减少碳排放的重点是加快推广碳减排相关技术的应用和普及,加快发展可再生能源,促进产业结构的优化和升级。

In this paper, a decomposition model based on the extended Kaya identity of carbon emissions in Hunan province is set up, and the influences of factors of population size, economic scale, industrial structure, technical progress and energy structure to variations of carbon emission of the terminal energy consumption in Hunan from 1995 to 2010 are quantitatively ana- lyzed in detail with the LMDI method. The results show that the economic scale effect, the technical progress effect, the ener- gy structure effect and the population size effect played the positive role in the growth of carbon emission, whose contribution ratio respectively are 41.15%, 37.84%, 12.86% and 9.46%. The reduction factor is energy structure, whose contributions＇ ratio is just -1.3%. The paper also finds out that the focus of reducing carbon emission in Hunan is to accelerate the applica- tion, promotion of related technology and the development of renewable energy, and to promote the optimization and upgrad- ing of industrial structure.