基于气候因素的流行性感冒的流行预测研究

Review on the climate factors-based flu epidemic prediction

流行性感冒（简称流感）作为一种长期威胁人类健康的流行性疾病，对其进行预测有利于及时采取相应的应急措施，将影响和危害降到最低。目前，随着信息技术的发展，积累了大量关于气候与流感发病情况的数据。针对流行性疾病预测的研究已进行了近90年，提出了各种预测模型，不同的预测方法各有优劣。其中，将影响疾病发展的关键气候因素引入到预测模型当中将有利于提高预测的精度。综合现有的各类方法，主要可从两个方面提高预测的精度：①结合不同预测方法的优势进行有效整合；②必须考虑到流感的预测中应该根据地域的不同、病原体和传播方式的特性确定相关的气候因素或发掘相关因素。通过将关键相关因素应用到流感爆发的预测模型中，设计出更加合理、精确的预测方法。

Epidemic influenza （flu） is a disease threatening the life of people for a long history. A precise forecast for the flu outbreak can warn and help health care providers to take measures to reduce the influences and harms in advance. At present, with the development of information technology, there have accumulated tremendous data of flu trends and climate information. With a history of 90 years researches about the forecast of flu trends, researchers have put forward different types of forecasting methods, and each of them has merits and demerits. Among these methods, those ones considering the key climate factors have higher precisions. Considering various methods at present, the prediction accuracy can be improved mainly from two aspects： on one hand, the forecast accuracy can be improved by effectively integrate the advantages of different models ; On the other hand, the prediction must take into account of the specific climate of an area, pathogens and the mode of transmission characteristics in order to determine the most relevant climate factors or other highly related factors with which to design a more reasonable and accurate prediction method.