网络风险评估技术中马尔科夫链的应用研究

Application Research of the Markov Chain in the Network Risk Assessment Technology

现有的网络风险评估的方式主要是基于攻击图模型,最重要的步骤是在攻击图生成后,对其进行量化分析的过程。本文在分析攻击图生成方式和现有研究成果的基础上,提出了基于马尔科夫链的攻击图量化分析方法,并结合实例阐述了攻击图的生成过程。在网络攻击模型中,加入了可能性和复杂性的分析。因此,可以更为精确地对易受攻击环节和攻击成功概率进行定量评估。

The existed network risk assessment approaches were mainly based on attack graphs model, the most important step was the process of quantitative analysis after the generation of attack graph. The paper proposed attack graph analy- sis method based on Markov chain in the foundation of analysis of attack graph generation and existed research results, and elaborated the attack graph generation process with examples. In the network attack model, the possibility and the complexity of the analysis were joined in the method. Therefore, the vulnerable link and success probability of attack could be more accurate in quantitative evaluation.