服务业就业占比的决定:“鲍莫尔-富克斯”模型再研究

The Decision of The Service Industry Employment Proportion:The rediscovery of "Baumol-Fuchs" model

利用"鲍莫尔-富克斯"模型的基本分析框架,本文构建了解释服务业就业占比的不同于原模型理论观点的两个理论。理论Ⅰ认为劳动生产率的变化通过供给、需求-价格、需求-工资三个渠道影响服务业就业占比。其中,服务业劳动生产率增长滞后会导致服务业就业占比下降。理论Ⅱ对服务业作了消费性和生产性的划分,这样,劳动生产率影响服务业占比的三个影响渠道都有了相当大的变化:(1)劳动生产率提高通过供给渠道导致服务业就业占比下降;(2)需求-价格渠道的作用削弱;(3)需求-工资渠道的作用加强。

Using the analysis framework of ＂Baumol-Fuchs＂ model, this paper constructs two theories which are different from the original model to explain the changes of the service industry em- ployment proportion. Theory one supposes that the changes in labor productivity can fully reflect the price and wage changes, then the changes of the service industry employment proportion can be ex- plained through the supply channel, demand and price channel, demand and wage channel. The lag of labor productivity growth in service industry causes the descends of the service industry employ- ment proportion. Theory two divides the service industry as two parts, the consumption service and the production service. Such the three channels that labor productivity affects service industry em- ployment proportion change considerably：（ 1 ） the supply channel, whether in services or in manu- factured goods , the increase of labor productivity will lead to the decrease of service industry employ- ment proportion. （2） The function of demand and price channel weakens. （3） The function of de- mand and wage channel strengthens.