黄河流域宁夏段径流对LUCC的响应研究

The Response towards the Yellow River Valley Runoff in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

宁夏段黄河流域因降水量少、水土流失严重、工农业用水量持续增加等原因导致水资源日益紧张。为了充分合理调度水资源以缓解该区用水压力,研究利用SWAT模型对径流进行了模拟,采用确定性系数(R2)和Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数(Ens)评价了SWAT模型在宁夏黄河流域的适用性。模型构建后,通过改变土地利用和土地覆被类型,研究了水田、水浇地、旱地、有林地、灌木林地、草地6种土地利用方式的面积分别增加5%、10%、15%、20%和分别减少5%、10%、15%、20%的条件下径流的变化情况。结果表明:草地和灌木林地面积增加,径流量增大;水田、水浇地、旱地、有林地面积增加,径流量减小。

Due to the reasons of less rainfall, serious soil erosion and increasing industrial and agricultural water consumption, the water resources is getting in short supply in Ningxia region of the Yellow River basin. In order to fully understand the Yellow River runoff changes within the territo- ry of Ningxia in the Yellow River valley, and reasonably scbedule and manage water resources to achieve intensive and economic use, we explored the applicability of SWAT model in this valley. Nash - Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient （Ens） and linear correlation coefficient （R2 ） were used as e- valuation indexes to evaluate the applicability of the model in this valley. When SWAT model was built, through changing land use and land cover types, studied the change of runoff to the paddy fields, irrigated land, dry land, forest land, shrub land and grassland, the area was increased by 5%, 10%, 15% and 20% respectively and decreased by 5%, 10%, 15% and 20% respectively. The results show that a） the area of grassland and shrub land are increased and the runoff increased, b） The area of paddy fields, irrigated land, dry land and forest area are increased and the runoff decreased.