我国产出波动与失业率变化之间的趋势性与非对称性研究

A Study of the Trend and Asymmetric Relationships between Output Fluctuation and Unemployment Changes in China

运用中国经济增长率与失业率的数据,利用两种模型和两种时间序列趋势分解方法,对我国1980-2012年产出波动与失业率变化之间的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明:我国产出波动和失业率变化之间存在负相关关系,并且这种关系存在着不对称效应,即相对于经济扩张时期,经济不景气时期的失业受到产出波动的影响更大,也就是说,经济受到负面冲击对宏观经济的影响比正面冲击产生的影响更大,恢复到正常水平的时间更长。这一结果可为我国宏观经济模型的设立提供一种实证上的依据,也对我国宏观经济政策的制定有一定的参考价值。

This study makes use of the data of China’s economic growth rate and unemployment rate to conduct an empirical analysis of the relationship between the output fluctuation and the changes of unemployment rates from 1980 to 2012 with the two models and the method of two kinds of time series trend decomposition.The result indicates that there exists a negative and asymmetric relationship between the output fluctuation and the changes of unemployment rate.It means that compared with the period of economic expansion,unemployment during the period of economic recession is more heavily affected by output fluctuations,i.e.the influence on macro-economy when the economy is under negative impact is greater than the influence when the economy is under positive impact,and the time to return to the normal level is longer.This result can be used to provide some empirical evidence for the establishing of China’s macroeconomic model,and offer some reference to the formulation of China’s macroeconomic policies as well.