灰色非线性增量动态模型在农药残留量模拟中的应用

A Dynamic Model of Grey Nonlinear Addition Used in Chemical Remaining Simulation

提出灰色高阶增量 GMS ( m ,1)动态模型及参数反馈辨识方法 ;构建出灰色非线性 L M ( m ,1)、LE ( m,1)及 LLM ( m,1)模型 ,能有效模拟农药残留等振荡或涨落衰减离散动态时间序列的非线性变化规律 .应用本文模型对代森锰锌在西红柿中的消解残留量模拟 ,复相关系数 R2≈ 1,平均误差率δ<0 .14 ;对氯氰菊脂在小白菜上的残留量模拟 ,R2 >0 .9989,δ<9.19 .模拟优度、精度明显优于若干新方法 [3 ,4] .为非线性离散动态过程建模、控制、预测提供了新的有效规范方法 ,亦可为非线性动力学研究提供新的建模思路 ,在生态。

A dynamic model of grey higher addition and identifying parameter of feedback have been studied by the authors. It is improved that the models, such as LM(m,1),LE(m,1) and LLM(m,1) , can be efficiently used to simulate chemical remaining and the remaining changing in agriculture in different growth stages. When the model used for Trimanoc remaining in tomato, the interrelation coefficiency is much higher (R\+2≈1), the average error is very lower (<0.14%); while used for Fenvalerat remaining in Chinese cabbage, the interrelation coefficiency is also rather high (R\+2>0.9989), the average error is relatvely low (<9.19%), it is well supported that the models are more effective than the other recommended simulation models when used for simulating chemical remaining in agriculture in terms of fitness and accuracy, hence it is suggested that the mentioned dynamics model of grey nonlinear addition can be widely used in economical, biological as well as social disciplines.