气候变暖对菏泽市冬小麦产量的影响

Effects of Climate Warming on Yield of Winter Wheat in Heze

根据1981～2010年菏泽市冬小麦产量和气温资料，采用5a滑动平均法分离出冬小麦气候产量，并将气候产量与气温进行相关分析。结果表明：在冬小麦全生育期内，平均气温呈极显著上升趋势，上升速率为0．54℃／10a，冬季升温较春季升温明显。在18个温度因子中，共有15个因子与冬小麦气候产量呈正相关，其他3个因子与气候产量呈负相关。其中拔节期极端最低气温（X15）、灌浆～成熟期平均气温（X17）与气候产量相关达到了显著水平，相关系数分别为0．41和0．36。

Based on the data of winter wheat yield and air temperature from 1981 to 2010, the climate yield of winter wheat was isolated by five - year moving average method and the correlation between them was analyzed. The results showed that the average air temperature increased very significantly at the rate of 0.54℃/10a during the whole growth period of winter wheat, and the temperature rose in winter was more evident than that in spring. Among 18 temperature factors, 15 factors were positively while the other 3 were nega-tively correlated with climate yield. The correlations of the lowest temperature at jointing stage（ X15 ） and average temperature from filling to ripening （X17 with climate yield reached significant level with the correlation coefficients as 0.41and 0.36 respectively.