城镇化背景下的粮食安全问题研究——基于城镇化率与粮食产量之间协整关系的分析

Study on Grain Security under Background of Urbanization——Based on Analysis of Co-integration Relationship between Rate of Urbanization and Output of Grain

近年来我国积极推行城镇化政策,城镇化率不断提高,粮食安全问题受到的关注日益提高。利用协整理论分析发现,我国城镇化率与粮食产量之间存在着长期的均衡关系。这一结果表明,我国的城镇化过程虽然会挤压土地,导致"非农化"、"非粮化"现象的出现;但与此同时,农村土地的利用效率在提高、农业规模化水平在扩大、农业专业化程度在提升、农业集约化生产在增强,使得粮食产量在增加。基于此分析结果,最后提出了城镇化背景下确保我国粮食安全的若干建议。

In recent years,China is actively implementing the policy of urbanization.The rate of urbanization is increasing and the problem of grain security has been increasingly concerned.By the co-integration analysis in this paper,we find that there is a long-ternl equilibrium relationship between the rate of urbanization and the output of grain in China.The result shows although the process of urbanization in China may occupy agricultural land and cause the phenomenon of ＂non-agricultural＂ and ＂non-food＂, the efficiency of rural land use is improving, the level of agricultural scale is expanding, the degree of agricultural specialization is rising, the intensity of agricultural production is enhancing and finally the output of grain is increasing.Based on the result, we put forward some suggestions for ensuring the grain security under the background of urbanization in China.