转型时期上海经济发展动力的结构分解研究

The Research on Shanghai's Economic Development Power in Transformation Period based on Structure Decomposition

投入产出分析是研究经济部门的重要手段之一。本文首先从产业关联角度考察了上海各产业之间的情况,然后利用结构分解方法对地区内投入产出模型进行分解,得到经济发展的动力因素影响模型。结合上海市2002年和2007年投入产出数据,分析转型时期最终消费、投资、调入进口、调出、出口、技术的变化对不同产业和不同部门的产出变化的影响,进而考察它们在上海经济发展中的作用,得出以下结论:一是这段时期上海经济主要依靠调出、出口的推动,技术的作用有待进一步提高;二是第二产业和第三产业发展迅速,设备制造和信息软件等产业增长很快。本文结合得出的结论提出了若干政策建议,对上海调整和优化产业结构提供了一定的依据,并为上海市经济进一步转型发展提供了参考。

The input-output analysis is a major method for analyzing the department of economic.First,this article analyzes the relationship of Shanghai＇s industries.Then we uses structure decomposition analysis to decompose the area input-output model,and we get an economic development dynamic model.Combine this model to Shanghai＇s input-output data,we analysis different factors,such as final consumption,investment,import,export and technology,influence on different industries and department,and then we inspect that these factors play very important roles in Shanghai＇s economic.We draw some conclusions：Firstly,the role of export is most important during this period.Secondly,the speed of secondary industry and tertiary industry are fast.At last we offer some reference for the further transformation development of shanghai.