我国个人所得税税收潜在能力估算——基于分布估测法的实证分析

An Estimation of Revenue Potential of Individual Income Tax in China

本文基于居民收入分布状况,运用统计方法,对我国居民收入分布的密度函数进行了估计,利用估计出的收入分布密度函数和2011年的个人所得税税率表,构建了个人所得税税收能力测算的积分模型,并计算出2011年我国个人所得税(工资、薪金)税收潜能,得出2011年个人所得税流失率为6.62%的结论。

Since September 2011, deduction of individual income tax in China has been increased to 3500 yuan, and the 9-level progressive tax rate in excess of specific amount has been changed into a 7-level one, resulting in reduction of individual income tax＇s revenue and taxpayers＇ tax burden. This paper estimates the density function of Chinese households＇ income distribution with statistical methods. The paper establishes the integrate model about individual income tax＇s revenue potential based on distribution density function of income and the schedule of individual income tax＇s rates in 2011. And then, the paper calculates that individual income （wage, stipend） tax＇s revenue potential in China was about 4178.433 billion Yuan in 2011. As a result, the. individual income tax＇ s loss rate was estimated to be 6.62%.