人类活动对中国区域气候及水循环的影响数值试验

Numerical Experiment of the Impact of Human Activity on China Regional Climate and Water Cycle

使用区域气候模式RegCM3,进行了人类活动(植被分布和CO2含量的变化)对中国区域气候及水循环影响的数值模拟试验。模拟结果表明:在植被退化和CO2浓度增加的共同影响下,春、夏季气温增加明显,特别是北部地区,秋、冬季我国气温降低明显,说明气温的年较差变大,极端气温事件发生的几率也随之变大;我国降水大体上呈现南方降水增多、北方降水减少的趋势,华北、内蒙古地区减少最多,而降水增加区域则集中在长江以南地区,这样的变化趋势将使得降水异常事件发生更加频繁。

Using regional climate model RegCM3, we carried out numerical simulation experiment of the impacts of human activity （vegetation distribution and CO2 concentration change） on China regional climate and water cycle. The simulated results show that： with the joint effects of vegetation degradation and the growing concentration of CO2, the temperature of spring, summer increases significantly, especially in the north, while the temperature of autumn and winter decreases significantly, indicating that the larger the annual ranges of temperature, the higher possibility of extreme temperature events. On the other hand, the results also show that the rainfall in China has a tendency that the precipitation in south in- creases while it decreases in north on the whole, and it decreases most in northern China, Inner Mongolia area. Meanwhile, the increased precipitation areas are concentrated in the area south of the Yangtze River. All of the trends will make the precipitation anomaly occurred more frequently.