欧盟碳排放交易体系对中国宏观经济的影响

Influence of EU emissions trading system for Chinese macroeconomy

2005年欧盟开始实施碳排放交易机制,其施行将会严重制约中国高速发展的航空运输业,通过一系列传导因素深刻影响宏观经济的运行。在这一背景下,研究欧盟碳排放交易体系对中国宏观经济的影响具有重要意义。本文通过运用基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数IRF(impulse response function)分析方法对宏观经济指标进行分离解释,揭示EU ETS对宏观经济的影响程度、时间和可能产生的后果。结果显示,EU ETS下可交易碳排放量期货价格的变动将会在一定时期内造成物价上涨引发通货膨胀、导致货币供应量下降以及带来对外贸易的波动,影响中国宏观经济的正常运行。

In 2005, the European Union started to implement the emissions trading scheme. Its implementation will be a serious constraint to China＇ s rapid development of air transport, thereby affecting the macro-economic opera- tion. Under this background, studying the EU ETS to China＇s economy has large significance. Macroeconomic indicators are separated by use of the VAR-IRF model to explain and reveal the extent, duration and the possi- ble consequences of the impact of the EU ETS on the economy. The results show that changes in the EU ETS tradable carbon-emission-future prices will be in a certain period of time resulting in price increases and even inflation, money supply decreases, as well as foreign trade fluctuations, and ultimately affect the normal opera- tion of China＇ s macroeconomy.