摘要
本文以纯电动和混合动力公交车为分析对象,建立了公交车的全生命周期成本模型,预测了未来10年纯电动和混合动力公交车的全生命周期成本,同时将两种新能源公交车与传统柴油公交车就成本和经济性进行了比较分析,得出到2015年我国应大规模推广混合动力公交车,而到2020年左右,纯电动公交车和混合动力公交车应该成为城市公交车的主力。同时,通过敏感性分析找出了影响两种公交车成本的关键因素。
This paper analyzes battery electric buses （BEB） and hybrid electric buses （HEB）. We have built a life-cycle cost model, predicting the whole life-cycle cost of the BEB and HEB over next 10 years and then compare new energy buses and traditional fuel buses on the cost and efficiency. We argue that our country should promote the HEB in large scale by 2015 and the BEB and HEB are supposed to dominate urban bus system by the end of 2020. The key factors affecting the cost of BEB and HEB are found through sensitivity analysis.
出处
《中国能源》
2013年第8期37-41,47,共6页
Energy of China
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(编号:71273031)
北京理工大学校基础研究基金(编号:20122142011)
