人口老龄化引致的国际资本流动及启示

International Capital Flows Caused by the Aging Population and Its Revelation to China

传统的国际资本流动动因分析侧重于现期"推"和"拉"的因素,往往忽视了决定推拉的深层次原因———人口年龄结构变动,因此对国际资本流动趋势把握缺乏前瞻性。文章创新性地结合生命周期理论,以日本为例进行了实证,通过对人口结构变动与投资收益变动趋势相关性的分析,厘清了人口结构变动导致国际资本流动的机制,最后结合中国实际提出了有益的建议。

The traditional international capital flows theory focuses on 'push' and 'pull' factors,often ignore the deep reason behind push and pull which was age structure change of population and has no foresight.The paper uses the life cycle theory to analyze the relation between population aging and investment yields change and take Japan as an empirical example to classify the mechanism.Finally the paper combined the reality in China and proposed some useful Suggestions.