人口结构、储蓄与经济增长——基于跨国面板向量自回归方法的研究

Demographic Structure, Saving Rate and Economic Growth: Study Based on Panel VAR Approach

本文将在内生人口转变框架下分析人口结构对储蓄率的影响。在内生人口转变情况下,人口结构变化对储蓄率的影响除了年龄结构效应,更重要的还有行为效应,包括审慎储蓄的行为效应和养老储蓄的行为效应。利用跨国面板向量自回归模型对1960-2011年的面板数据进行实证分析的结果发现,在不同经济发展阶段,经济增长对人口转变的影响不同;并且由于人口转变的行为效应,少儿抚养比与老人抚养比对储蓄率的影响也不都是负的。当一个国家经历了落后阶段、快速发展阶段和发达阶段时,随着经济的增长,少儿抚养比和老人抚养比都呈"升高-下降-升高"的趋势。在行为效应和年龄结构效应的交替作用下,少儿抚养比升高导致储蓄率先后呈"升高-下降-升高"的趋势,老人抚养比升高先后导致储蓄率呈"升高-下降"的趋势。这种变化趋势对于人口和经济增长方式转变有重要影响,这需要我国更重视人力资本在推动经济增长方面的作用。

The paper studies the effect of demographic structure on saving rate with endogenous demographic change. In the case of endogenous demographic change, demographic structure can affect the saving rate not only through the age composition effect but also through the behavior effect, which includes prudent saving behavior effect and pension saving behavior effect. We apply PVAR model to inter-country panel data from 1960 to 2011 to test the correlation among young dependency ratio, old dependency ratio and gross national saving rate at different stages of development. The results show that the effect of economic growth on demographic change varies at different stages, and the effect of demographic change on saving rate is not always negative at the three stages because of behavior effect. If a country develops from a lagging stage to a quickly developing stage and then to developed stage, with the increase of income, both the young dependency ratio and the old dependency ratio change through the path ＂increasing-decreasing-increasing＂ . With the interaction of behavior effect and age composition effect, the increase of young dependency ratio will lead the saving rate to change through the path ＂increasing-decreasing-increasing＂ , and the increase of old dependency ratio will lead the saving ratio to rise first and then decrease. The trend of saving rate and demographic structure has important implication for Chinese economic growth. That is, we should emphasize the role of human canital on economic arowth in the future.