军事冲突群体决策的超对策分析方法

Hypergame analysis method for group decision making in military conflicts

实际军事冲突中,不同指挥员对敌方的战场信息有着不同的认知,为此运用群决策方法对这些不同认知信息进行有效融合,然后基于融合信息建立军事冲突超对策模型,并应用超对策稳定性分析过程对模型进行求解,进而根据超对策均衡结局确定单方局中人的最优指挥策略。最后,通过实例验证了该模型和方法的有效性。

In real military conflicts, commanders have different ideas of hostile information. There- fore, this paper proposes a group decision making method to integrate these pieces of information and then establishes a hypergame model for the military conflict situation. The hypergame stability analy- sis is used to find the hypergame equilibria, from which the optimal command strategy of each side can be efficiently obtained. Finally, an example is provided to verify the method.