蠕虫传播数学模型及仿真模型

Mathematic and simulative models of worm propagation

通过对随机常量传播模型和基于随机扫描的离散传播模型的比较,分析了蠕虫病毒在两种模型中的传播趋势,动态研究了蠕虫全周期的传播行为以及在不同影响下的微观表现,详尽分析了随机扫描的离散传播模型的三个重要动态因素,得到了蠕虫传播初期预防和传播后期抑制的手段方法。仿真实验结果表明:已感染主机免疫率和易感染主机免疫率的提高能够减小蠕虫传播初期的传播速度及加快后期抑制病毒的速度,主机扫描数的降低也能减小蠕虫初期的传播速度。

The comparison of the worm discrete propagation model and the worm diffused random- constant model, leads to the analysis of a progenitive trend of the worm in the two models. Based on the analysis of the two worm models, the worm discrete propagation model is selected for researching the dynamistic and microcosmic behaviors of the worm under different influences. Three important factors influencing the propagation of worm are studied elaborately thus to gain some methods which can be used to prevent the hosts in the initial stages of the propagation and control the worm in the anaphase of the propagation. The result of the simulation experiments show that the increase of im- munization rates of infected hosts and susceptible hosts can reduce the spread of the early worm propa- gation speeds and accelerate the speed of late viral suppression and the decrease of host scans also can reduce the propagation speeds of worms in early stages.