我国能源消费与经济增长关系的协整分析

A Co-Integration Analysis of Relationship Between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in China

为避免小样本研究带来的偏差,以1953—2011年我国能源消费总量和GDP数据为基础,运用协整分析方法和Granger因果检验探讨我国能源消费与经济增长之间的关系.实证研究表明:尽管在短期内,我国能源消费与经济增长之间存在波动关系,但是从长期来看,能源消费与经济增长之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,并且存在从能源消费到经济增长、经济增长到能源消费的双向因果关系.研究结果表明,不断地扩大的能源供应是经济增长强有力的保障,能源消费总量也会随着经济增长而增长,一旦能源短缺势必会限制经济增长.

For the sake of avoiding deviation caused by small samples study, this paper chooses China＇s 1953-2011 total energy consumption and GDP data as the study basis and investigates the relationship between energy consumption and economic analys in the growth in China by adopting the cointegration is and the Granger causality test. Empirical research shows that although there are fluctuations co-relation between energy consumption and economic growth in the short term, there is a stable equilibrium relationship between China＇s energy consumption and economic growth in the long term. In addition, there exist two-direction causality between energy consumption and economic growth. The research results show that continually expanding energy supply is the guarantee of strong economic growth; the total energy consumption grows with the economic growth; energy shortage is bound to limit economic growth