我国社会保障支出与居民消费的实证分析——基于中国1978-2011年数据

The empirical analysis of China's social security expenditure and domestic consumption——Based on Chinese data 1978-2011

当前,在世界经济低迷之势一时难以扭转的背景下,我国经济发展的支撑更加集中在内需上。文章采用我国1978-2011年居民人均消费支出和社会保障人均支出数据,通过协整检验和误差修正模型等计量方法,检验社会保障支出对于居民消费的影响。计量分析的结果表明,拉动居民消费的关键提高养老保障水平、平衡城乡基本医疗保险发展、增强国民的消费信心,从而引导和促进居民的消费需求。

At present, in the context of making it difficult to reverse the trend of world economic down- turn, Chings economic development support is more concentrated in the domestic demand. The articles use Chings 1978--2011 annual per capita consumption expenditure and per capita spending on social se- curity data, measured by unit root test and error correction model to test the effects per capita expendi- ture of social secuity on residents consumption. Econometric analysis results show that, boost the resi- dents＂ consumption is the key to improve the level of pension insurance, balance urban and rural basic medical development, it can enhance the national consumer confidence, so as to guide and promote the consumption demand of residents.