土地财政、房价波动与城乡消费差距——基于面板数据联立方程的研究

Land Finance,House Prices Fluctuation and Gap between Urban and Rural Consumption:A Research Based on Panel Data Simultaneous Equations

在中国城乡消费差距扩大的过程中，土地财政和房地产价格波动是重要的推动因素。本文在对其作用机制进行理论分析的基础上，利用中国1999—2010年31个省区市的面板数据，构建联立方程模型检验了土地财政与房价波动间的相互关系，进而考察了土地财政和房价波动对全国及区域层面城乡消费差距的影响。研究结果表明：（1）土地财政与房价波动间存在正向的相互作用，房价上涨促进了土地财政的增加，而土地财政增加反过来推动了房价上涨；（2）土地财政和房价波动对城乡消费差距有显著的正向影响，地方政府对土地财政依赖的增强和房价上涨，会拉大城乡消费差距；（3）土地财政、房价波动与城乡消费差距间的作用强度存在显著的区域差异，东部地区土地财政与房价波动间的双向促进作用要显著强于中西部地区，而东部地区土地财政对城乡消费差距的影响则小于中西部地区。

Land finance and house prices fluctuation play a crucial role on China＇s gap between urban and rural consump-tion. In this paper, based on a theoretical analysis of the mechanism of action, we construct a panel data simultaneous equa-tion model to test the relationship between land finance and house prices fluctuation, using the 1999-2010 panel data of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, and then examine the effect of land finance and house prices fluctuation on gap between urban and rural consumption in both national and regional level. The study results show that ： （ 1 ） There is a pos- itive interaction between land finance and house prices fluctuation which promote each other. （2） Land finance and house prices fluctuation have a significant positive effect on gap between urban and rural consumption, and the rising of house prices and the enhancement of local governments＇ dependence on land finance will widen gap between urban and rural consumption. （3） There exist significant regional differences for the relationship of land finance, house prices fluctuation and gap between urban and rural consumption in different regions. In the eastern region, the inter-promoting relationship between real estate in- dustry and land finance is stronger than in the central and western regions, while the effect of land finance on gap between ur-ban and rural consumption in the eastern region is weaker than in the central and western regions.