农业政策、农户行为与我国粮食安全——基于动态面板模型的实证研究

Agricultural Policy,Farmer’s Behavior and Food Security——An Empirical Study Based on Dynamic Panel Model

运用中国26个省区数据进行面板模型回归,分析农业政策对中国粮食安全的影响,得出以下结论:中国近年来实行的财政支农、粮食最低收购价格等政策对提高中国粮食安全保障程度具有显著促进作用,对于中西部地区尤其如此。产业结构对全国尤其是中西部地区的粮食种植面积影响显著,说明工业化和城镇化对耕地过度占用是威胁中国粮食安全的重要因素。农资价格上涨也会影响粮食种植面积。因此,应继续大力执行财政支农政策,实行粮食最低收购价格政策,严格控制工业化和城镇化对耕地的侵蚀,从而提高中国粮食安全保障程度。

The paper makes a panel model regression by using the provincial data of 26 provinces in China,analyzes the influence of agricultural policy on China’s food security,and gets the following conclusions： agricultural policies like giving financial support to farmers,and the lowest purchasing price of grain has significant promotion on improving China’s food security level,especially in the middle and western regions.Industrial structure greatly influences the cultivated land in China,especially in the middle and western regions.This proves that an important factor influencing china’s food security is the excessive occupancy of cultivated land due to industrialization and urbanization.Price increase of agricultural resources also influences grain planting area.Therefore,the above mentioned agricultural policies should be strongly implemented,and industrialization and urbanization as threats to cultivated land should be strictly controlled to improve the security level of China’s food security.