扩大内需与出口贸易:基于中国省级数据的分析

Expanding Domestic Demand and Export: Based on China's Provincial Data Analysis

本文利用1999—2011年我国31个省市的面板数据,考察扩大内需战略对我国出口贸易产生的影响。研究表明:内需的提高不仅不会抑制出口,还能促进出口贸易的扩张,数据显示,内需提高1%会促进出口量扩张约0.732%,这意味着在目前阶段,我国对外贸易中国内消费需求因素发挥了核心作用。在区域的研究中发现,扩大内需战略对东、中、西部地区的出口贸易均能产生正向的促进作用,但是这一作用存在明显的地区差异性。需求提高1%导致东部地区的出口增加1.317%,这意味着本土市场效应在东部地区的出口发挥核心作用;需求对中西部地区出口贸易的作用依次递减。同时人均资本和外商直接投资对出口有正向激励作用,而政府规模过大会抑制出口。

This paper explores an empirical study of the effect on export trade by implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand with The provincial panel data ranging from 1999--2011. The results confirm： the increase the domestic de- mand will not restrain exports, also can promote the expansion of export trade, data show that domestic demand increased by 1% to boost exports expanded by about 0.732%, which means that at this stage, China＇s foreign trade within China consumer de- mand factors played a central role. Found in the area of research, expanding domestic demand strategy of eastern, central and western regions will produce positive promoting effect of export trade, but the role of obvious regional differences. Demand in- creased 1% in the eastern region＇s exports increased by 1. 317% ,which means that the home market effect in the east of the country＇s export play a key role;Demand for diminishing the role of export trade,in turn, in the Midwest. At the same time, the per capita capital and foreign direct investment have a positive incentive effect on exports, and the government scale will curb exDorts.