制度约束下东道国腐败对中国对外直接投资的影响——基于跨国面板数据的门槛效应检验

The Influence of Host Country Corruption on Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investment under Institutional Constraints: An Empirical Analysis of Cross-country Panel Data Based on Threshold Models

基于2003—2011年中国对发展中国家直接投资的跨国面板数据,运用Hansen门槛回归模型实证检验制度约束情境下东道国腐败对中国OFDI的影响。研究发现,当东道国的制度质量跨过一定的门槛水平时,腐败会对中国OFDI产生明显的负向效应;而低于特定门槛时,腐败对中国OF-DI的负向效应会逐渐减弱,甚至表现为显著的正向效应。本文进一步测算了影响东道国腐败对中国OFDI作用效应的一系列重要制度因素,如法治水平、监管质量、政府效能、民主自由等的门槛水平,结果表明,东道国较低的法治水平和监管质量会在一定程度上促使中国OFDI企业选择腐败作为替代性激励源,而政府效能、民主自由等对中国OFDI企业参与腐败行为动机的强化作用并不明显,但当这些制度因素跨过一定的门槛水平后,均会明显弱化中国OFDI企业参与腐败行为的动机。

Base on panel threshold models proposed by Hansen in 1999, the paper uses China＇s OFD1 to 62 developing host countries in the period 2003-2011 as a sample to do an empirical analysis on the influence of host country corruption on Chi- nese OFDI under institutional constraints and measure the threshold effects of several institutional factors including the rule of law, regulatory quality, government effectiveness, voice and accountability. The results show that when the rule of law is high in the host country, corruption will inhibit Chinese OFDI, but when the rule of law is low in the host country, corruption will attract Chinese OFDI, and so is the same as regulatory quality. For the government effectiveness, voice and accountability, when the level is high in the host country, corruption will inhibit Chinese OFDI, but when the level is low in the host country, corruption will not attract Chinese OFDI or the effect of corruption on Chinese OFDI is not obvious.