基于情景分析法的技术预测研究

A Study of the Technological Forecasting Based on Scenario Analysis

本文阐述了情景分析法的特点和技术发展的动态性,认为情景分析法应用于技术预测具有可行性。分析了情景分析法应用于技术预测的完整过程,包括以下步骤:确定调查专家、确定技术发展关键影响因素、技术发展未来情景描述、技术发展敏感度分析、技术发展路径分析和预测结果对于企业技术决策的支持。

The paper introduces the features of scenario analysis and the dynamic of technology development,assumes that it is feasible for scenario analysis to apply to technological forecasting.Analyzes the process of the application,including steps in the following:picking up expert candidates,defining key influencing factors of technology development,scenario description of technology development,sensitivity analysis of technology development,path analysis of technology development and the support of the results to enterprise technological decision-making.