不同部门的FDI流入与人民币实际汇率

FDI Inflows at Sector Level and RMB Real Exchange Rate

以往认为FDI对实际汇率影响较小的观点多基于FDI主要流向贸易部门,对不可贸易品价格影响较小这一认识。本文考察了我国贸易和不可贸易部门的FDI流人对人民币实际汇率的影响。结果发现:流入贸易部门的FDI倾向于引发人民币实际贬值,而流入不可贸易部门的FDI对人民币实际汇率的影响则有多种结果:金融业和批发零售业的FDI流入显著引发人民币实际升值,而建筑业FDI流入却促使人民币实际贬值,房地产业FDI流入对人民币实际汇率的影响不显著。同时,流人不可贸易部门的FDI对贸易品价格上涨和人民币名义升值有显著影响,这表明该部门的FDI流人可能会引发"荷兰病"。

The FDI has been considered to have little impact on real exchange rates. However, this argument is mostly established on a perspective that most of the FDI flows into tradable sectors rather than non - tradable sectors. The paper tries to investigate the effects of FDI in different sectors on the real exchange rate of RMB. The finding shows that the FDI flowing into the tradable sectors tends to lead a real depreciation of RMB, while that flows into non - tradable sectors has mixed effects on the real exchange rate of RMB. Specifically, the FDI flowing into the financial, wholesale, and retail industries causes RMB appreciate, whereas those into construc- tion industry has an opposite impact. However, we fail to find significant result in the real estate industry. Mo- reover, the finding indicates that FDI flowing into non -tradable sectors might induce the ＂Dutch disease＂.