我国农村劳动力转移数量测算及未来趋势预测

Quantity Measurement and Forecast of the Future Trends on Rural Labor Force Transfer in China

合理采用农村劳动力转移数量测算方法,测算了我国1991-2009年农村劳动力转移数量,对期间所呈现的阶段变化特征进行了分析.此外,还利用GM(1,1)模型对我国2010-2020年农村劳动力转移数量进行了预测,结果表明,在未来10年内,我国农村劳动力转移数量还将保持逐年增长,至2020年将达到26 707.26万人,较2009年增长55.57%.

This paper reasonably adopts quantity measurement method of rural labor force transfer and calculates the quantity of rural labor transfer in China during 1991--2009, and analyzes phasic variation characteristics presenting during this period. In addition, the quantity of rural labor transfer in china is forecasted with the GM（1,1） model in 2010--2020 in this pa per. The results show that, in the next 10 years, the number of China＇s rural labor force transfer will still keep increasing year by year; it will reach 26 707.26 million in 2020, increases by 55. 570/6o than that of in 2009.