中国进出口贸易的内涵CO2排放--基于多区域投入产出法的测算及分析

Carbon Dioxide Emissions Embodied in China's International Trade:Estimation and Analysis Based on Multi-Regional Input-Output Model

本文从内涵排放的视角出发,基于多区域投入产出模型对中国进出口贸易的内涵CO2排放量进行测算与分析。研究表明,2005年中国出口商品中内涵的CO2排放量为16.47亿吨,约占国内总排放量的32.6%,扣除进口商品中内涵的9.25亿吨CO2排放,净出口内涵排放量约为7.21亿吨,相当于国内总排放量的14%左右。不同核算原则下中国的CO2排放量差异很大,生产核算原则下中国的CO2排放量比消费核算原则下的排放量高出15.46亿吨。本文揭示了进出口贸易对于中国排放增长的贡献,也说明中国境内产生的CO2排放在很大程度上是为了满足其他国家的需求,是对其他国家排放的一种替代。此外,运用改进后的替代效应法,本文量化了中国进出口贸易的环境负效应约为6亿吨CO2。最后我们对可能的误差来源进行探讨,并依据所得结论为中国参与国际气候谈判、优化贸易结构提供政策建议。

Using a multi-regional input-out approach, this paper estimates and analyzes the CO2 emissions embodied in China＇s international trade. The study shows that the amount of COs emissions embodied in China＇s export was about 1,647 million tons in 2005, representing 32.6% of China＇s total CO2 emissions that year which, by deducting the 925 million tons embodied in import, indicates a net export embodiment of about 721 million tons, accounting for about 14% of China＇ s total emissions that year. The amount of CO2 emissions in China var- ies widely across different accounting principles. China＇ s CO2 emissions under the production accounting principle in 2005 was 1,546 million tons more than that calculated under the consumption accounting principle. The research reveals how much foreign trade contributes to the increase in China＇s emissions. A large part of China＇s domestic emissions was generated to meet the import needs of other countries, ending up superseding other nations＇ emissions. In this study we also quantify the negative environmental effect of China＇s intemational trade to be about 600 million tons. At the end of the paper we discuss possible deviation errors in our calculation and propose a few policy implications.