中国服务贸易出口增长的数量、价格及种类分解

Growth in China's Services Export:Quantity,Price and Variety Decomposition

本文首次提出了如何突破服务贸易自身特性和统计数据的现实约束,将目前较为流行的研究货物贸易增长边际分析法拓展至服务贸易领域,并据此将中国服务贸易出口市场份额分解为价格、种类和数量,从而回答了中国服务贸易出口如何增长的问题。研究发现,中国服务贸易出口具有典型的粗放型特征,其增长主要依赖于数量增长,价格和种类变化的边际贡献较小,并且从动态演进的角度来看,上述情形有加剧发展之势。如何实现中国服务贸易发展的"量质齐升"成为理论和实践部门面临的重要课题。

By breaking away from the constraints of predetermined characteris- tics of services trade and statistical assumptions, this paper extends the goods-cen- tered margin analysis method of trade growth to services trade, based on which, the author decomposes China＇s services export into price margin, variety margin and quantity margin. The results show that China＇s service export has typical ex- tensive growth features. That is to say, China＇s services export growth mainly re- lies on quantity margin instead of price margin and variety margin, and this trend is supposed to be reinforced from the dynamic evolution viewpoint. There- fore, how to materialize a combined improvement of both quality and quantity in China＇s services export becomes an imperative task ahead.