人民币汇率变动对中国-东盟的贸易效应的实证检验

Effect of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations on China-ASEAN Trade:A Study Based on Export Pricing Model

汇率变动的贸易效应,尤其人民币汇率变动对中国-东盟贸易的影响效应已成为学术界和理论界探讨的一个焦点。本文将在企业最优出口定价模型和行业出口定价模型构建的基础上搭建汇率变动对中国-东盟贸易效应的理论模型。在此基础上,进一步实证分析人民币汇率变动对中国-东盟贸易的影响。其结果显示,人民币汇率变动对文莱、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国、越南7国贸易的影响满足马歇尔-勒纳条件;人民币汇率变动对柬埔寨、老挝、缅甸三国贸易的影响符合"J曲线效应"。基于此,提出人民币汇率变动条件下中国-东盟未来贸易发展的策略选择。

The effect of exchange rate changes on trade, especially the effect of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on China-ASEAN trade has become a hotspot of academic and theoretical explorations. Based on the optimal export pricing model and industrial export pricing mode, the authors construct a theoretical mod- el for this paper reflecting the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on the Chi- na-ASEAN trade. Through the analysis using this model, the study finds that Chi- na＇ s trade balance with ASEAN countries will mainly affect relative labor wage levels, intermediate input prices, interest rate levels, GNP of China and ASEAN countries and RMB exchange rates. Assuming the interest rates in China and ASEAN countries are relatively stable, the exchange rate can be as constant as interest rate, subject only to the four factors. Thereby, this paper further explores the study by identifying lateral changes in RMB exchange rate levels and deter- mining the volatility of China-ASEAN trade. The results show that, the trade in- fluence of RMB exchange rate changes on Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philip- pines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam meets the Marshall-lerner condition; the trade effect of RMB exchange rate changes on Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar is in conformity with the ＂J curve effect＂ . On such a basis, this paper concludes by proposing measures to better harness China-ASEAN trade under RMB real ex- change rates.