区域人水和谐评价指标体系及评价模型

Evaluation index system and evaluation models for regional human-water harmony

为了评价区域人水和谐程度,在阐述人水和谐内涵的基础上,根据复杂系统及和谐论理论,构建了区域人水和谐评价指标体系.根据集对分析和可变模糊集理论,建立了集对分析可变模糊集模型,评价人水复合系统发展态势;以合作博弈理论为基本思想确定系统"理想发展状态",结合距离协调度模型,建立了合作博弈距离协调度模型,评价人水复合系统协调度;以发展态势和协调度为基本依据,采用乘法合成模型综合评价区域人水复合系统和谐度.将上述模型应用于陕西省人水复合系统,评价2000—2009年人水系统和谐程度,评价结果显示陕西省人水系统和谐度呈现缓慢上升趋势,但均处于第I,II等级,属于不和谐或临界和谐状态.说明陕西省人水和谐程度仍处于较低水平,比较符合陕西省目前实际现状.将此模型与模糊综合评价模型的评价结果进行对比分析,评价结果基本一致,表明该模型有效可行,结果可靠.

In order to evaluate regional human-water harmony,the concept of human-water harmony was introduced and,based on complex system theory and harmony theory,a set of indicators to eva-luate regional human-water harmony was established.With set pair analysis theory and variable fuzzy set theory,set pair analysis-variable fuzzy set model was set up to analyze the development trend of human-water system.An ideal development state of a system was determined in the spirit of cooperative game theory;a cooperative game distance coordination degree model was established to evaluate coordination degrees of human-water system.On the bases of development trend and coordination degree,a multiplicative synthesis model is used to evaluate regional human-water harmony degree.The above-mentioned models were applied to assess the human-water harmony degree of human-water system from the year 2000 to 2009 in Shaanxi province.The results show that the human-water harmony degrees were on a slow increasing trend,but still in grade I and II,disharmony and critical harmony.It indicated the level of human-water harmony in Shaanxi province was still rather low,which is in close accordance with the fact in Shaanxi province.Comparison with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model showed similar results,which proves the feasibility of the models and reliability of results.