冯家山水库供水持续性评价

Evaluating water supply sustainability of Fengjiashan Reservoir

结合可持续发展理念与风险分析的理论和方法,选取可靠性、弹性、脆弱性、均方差及最大缺水率等5个性能指标为持续性指标,以冯家山水库为研究对象,针对生活、工业、生态环境、农业灌溉等水库用水户,合理选取性能指标构建持续性指标,对其持续性进行了评价;并用这4个用水户作为用水群的组成构建群持续性指标对水库供水持续性进行了评价.冯家山水库供水持续性评价结果表明,在现状情形下,水库供水持续性为35%,持续性较低;尤其农业灌溉供水持续性仅为29%.减少农业灌溉对水库需水要求的30%时,生活、工业、生态环境、农业灌溉用水户的可靠性及持续性都得到提高,此时,农业灌溉供水持续性为40%,水库供水持续性为45%,水库供水持续性得到提高.可在灌区采取一定的节水措施,以减少农业灌溉对水库的需水,提高农业灌溉用水户的持续性和水库供水持续性,降低缺水风险,促进水库的可持续发展.

The water supply sustainability of Fengjiashan Reservoir was evaluated by means of the sustainable development concept and the theory and method of risk analysis.In the evaluation,five performance parameters such as reliability,resilience,vulnerability,standard deviation and maximum soil water deficit were selected as sustainability index（SI）.According to four kinds of water users,namely life,industry,ecological environment and agriculture,proper sustainability indices for these users were established as well.Further a sustainability index was built for the group composed of those four kinds of water users.The results showed that the water supply sustainability by group（SG） is as low as 35% in current situation,especially the SI for agriculture is 29% only.If the agriculture water demand is reduced by 30%,then the reliability and SI for all the users are improved.Under this condition,the SI for agriculture is 40% and the SG for the reservoir is increased to as high as 45%.Therefore,whatever water saving measures should be taken in areas under irrigation to reduce agricultural water demand and enhance the agricultural sustainability and improve reservoir water supply sustai-nability as well as reduce the risk of water deficit,eventually promote the sustainable development of reservoir.