管径在给水管网故障率定量模型构建分析

Pipe Diameter Applied to Constructing a Quantitative Model of Fault Rate of Water Supply Network

根据南方某市供水管网属性数据和故障统计数据,对管网爆管和泄漏的影响因素进行权重分析,提出在生产实践中管径可作为管网故障的关键表征因素。在此基础上借助SPSS软件建立了基于管径单因素的管道故障率模型,该模型在管径400mm处分段构建,平均误差3.18%,拟合精度良好。该模型定量阐释管径因素在管网故障诊断中的作用,并提出可将故障率模型作为约束条件引入大型给水管网的优化设计过程。对管径在给水管网故障控制中的关键作用进行了有益的探索。

An analytic hierarchy process, basing on the attribute and fault statistics data of water supply network of a southern city, is conducted to determine the weight of each factor that affecting the explosion and leakages of the network, and recommend that pipe diameter can be used as the key factor of network fault interpretation. Basing on the pipe diame- ter factor, a pipeline failure rate model is established using SPSS software. The model was sectional established at DN400 and it has satisfactory fitting performance as its mean error was 3.18%. This failure rate model can quantitatively explain the effect of the diameter factor in the pipe network fault diagnosis, and it can be introduced as a constraint to the optimization design process of large water supply network.It explores the crucial effect of pipe diameter on controlling network fault which has been a difficult and complicated issue for a long time.