基于LMDI的陕西省能源消费碳排放因素分解研究

Factor decomposition of carbon emissions from energy consumption of Shaanxi province based on LMDI

对区域碳排放影响因素及其作用强度的深入研究,不仅有助于区域节能减排政策的科学制定,并对中国2020年碳减排目标的实现具有重要的现实意义。文中基于扩展的Kaya模型和LMDI分解法定量分析了人口、经济增长、产业结构、能源强度、能源消费结构五个因素对陕西省能源消费碳排放的影响。结果表明:经济增长是拉动陕西省能源消费碳排放增长的决定性因素;人口、产业结构和能源强度的变动也对碳排放增长具有正向影响,但作用强度不大;能源消费结构优化是抑制陕西省能源消费碳排放增长的主要因素。根据分析结果,文中对制约我国经济社会低碳化发展的主要问题进行了延伸性讨论,认为中国实现经济社会低碳化发展的重点在于抑制因经济增长方式不合理而引致的碳排放过快增长,并从产业结构调整优化和能源消费两个层面,提出了抑制碳排放不合理增长的若干建议。

Study on the regional carbon emission influence factor and its effect will contribute to formulation sound regional energy saving and emission reduction policy,also have important practical significance to accomplish the china’s 2020 goal of carbon reduction.In this paper,the impact from population,economic growth,industrial structure,energy intensity and energy consumption structure on carbon emission were explored in detail with extended Kaya model and LMDI factors decomposition method.The result shows that economic growth is the dominant factor causing the growth of carbon emission in Shannxi province,the variation of population,industrial structure and energy intensity also has positive impact on carbon emission,but the effect is quite small.Only the variation of energy consumption structure have restrained the growth of the carbon emissions in 2000-2010.According to the results of analysis,we carried out further discussion on the main problems of china’s low carbon development,and put forward some propose for restrain unreasonable carbon emission growth.