信贷周期与经济周期的相互关系及其启示

The Correlation between Credit Cycle and Economic Cycle and its Revelations

信贷周期与经济周期之间存在着必然的内在联系。分别采用年度数据与季度数据考察了我国改革开放以后的信贷周期与经济周期的波动特征,并对变量之间的关系进行了时差分析和Granger因果关系检验。结论是,信贷仍然是影响我国经济发展的重要因素,不过信贷波动的内生性在不断增强。我国货币政策应充分发挥信贷数量调控作用,在操作过程中重视信贷与经济波动之间的前瞻性和滞后性。

There is definitely a correlation between credit cycle and economic cycle.By observing yearly data and quarterly data,this paper analyzes the fluctuant characteristics of credit cycle and economic cycle since the reform and opening-up,testing time difference correlation analysis and Granger causality of variable relations.The conclusion is that credit remains an important factor influencing greatly on our national economy with a strengthening endogenous character of credit fluctuation.In the monetary policy of our national economy,the role of regulating the number of credit should be highlighted with the prospective and hysteretic nature of the fluctuation between credit and economy during the operational process.