粮食安全、农民增收与财政支农资金效率的耦合分析——基于DEA-Tobit模型的实证研究

Coupling Analysis in Peasants' Income, Food Security and Fiscal Fund for Assisting Agriculture——Empirical Analysis based on DEA-Tobit Model

本文运用DEA模型对2010年全国30个省(自治区、直辖市)的财政支农效率进行了比较,并根据评价结果构建Tobit回归方程,分析地方财政支农资金效率的影响因素。结果表明我国地方财政支农资金存在效率不高的问题;人均国内生产总值、乡村就业人口平均受教育年限、自然灾害对我国财政支农资金效率影响显著,而农业机械动力的影响并不显著。各地应结合自身的特点促进财政支农资金效率的提高,同时,我国还应加强农村基础教育,促进传统农业向现代农业转变,实现粮食安全、农民增收目标与财政支农资金的有效耦合。

Based on the two-stage method of DEA-Tobit,this paper compares the efficiencies of fiscal fund for assisting agriculture.Then according to the results in stage 1,the paper constructs a multiple linear regression model.The results show that the efficiencies of fiscal fund for assisting agriculture in our country are not high.The per capita GDP,the average education year of rural employment population and the natural disasters have significant effects on the efficiencies of fiscal fund for assisting agriculture in our country.The powers of agricultural machinery don＇t have significant effects on the efficiencies of fiscal fund for assisting agriculture.The regions of different of our country should be combined with their characteristics to promote the efficiencies of fiscal fund.Besides,the countryside elementary education should be strengthen,our agriculture should be transformed from the traditional agriculture to modern agricultural,in order to improve the peasants＇ Income,food Security and the efficiencies of fiscal fund for assisting agriculture.