基于Weisbuch-Deffuant模型的网络舆论演化模式研究

On the Dynamics of Network Public Opinion:A Research Based on Weisbuch-Deffuant Model

网络舆论是当前社会管理面临的一项重要内容。借鉴Weisbuch-Deffuant模型粒子交互的建模思想,结合网络舆论生成的特殊性以及个体观点接受度的异质性确立了网络舆论演化规则;然后通过仿真实验分别考察了个体观点接受度μ的分布状况、信任阈值ε以及意见领袖对网络舆论演化过程的影响。实验结果表明,相比于μ随机分布的情况,μ服从均值为0.5的正态分布时,网络舆论会以更快的速度收敛;信任阈值与网络舆论演化过程最终形成的观点簇的数量成反比;意见领袖的存在,尤其是意见领袖的初始观点具有明显的偏向性时,会影响甚至决定网络舆论极化现象的产生。

Gaining an in-depth knowledge on the dynamics of network public opinions（NPO） is becoming a more important element of current social management.Taking account of the forming field of NPO and the heterogeneity of agents,the study builds the dynamics rules of NPO by modifying Weisbuch-Deffuant model.Then the paper discusses the influence of the distribution of μ which is used to denote one＇ acceptance of others＇ individual perspectives,the bounded confidence ε,and opinion leaders on the evolution process of NPO by a series of simulation experiments.The results show that,compared to the situation of μ following random distribution,NPO will convenes at a much faster speed when μ is normally distributed with an average 0.5;there is an inverse relationship between the value of bounded confidence ε and the final number of opinion clusters;and,the existence of opinion leaders will bring about the polarization of group＇s opinion,which is even true especially when the initial opinions held by opinion leaders are too biased.