微博对群体性事件助燃的动力学机制分析——以“昆明PX事件”为例

Analysis of the Dynamic Mechanism Micro-blog Combustion of Mass Incidents——Taking "Kunming PX Incident" as an Example

随着微博影响力的不断扩大,它对群体性事件的发展有一定的助燃作用。本文在对相关理论和研究成果进行总结的基础上,结合社会助燃理论和系统动力学的知识,建立了群体性事件发展的因果关系图,全面分析群体性事件在现实社会中发生与发展过程中,政府、网民、网络媒体和事件本身所扮演的角色和其影响关系;将该模型简化,从微博关注度和微博信息数量两个方面,分析微博对群体性事件的助燃作用。以"昆明PX事件"为例,对模型进行仿真,了解微博关注度的变化和微博信息数量的变化对于群体性事件关注度变化的影响,认为微博的裂变式传播、广泛性和平台的冗杂性都直接或间接地促进群体性事件关注度的增加。

with the exparlsion of the microblog＇ s influence, it has certain combustion effect on the development of mass incidents. Based on related theory and a summary on the research results, Combining with the basic knowledge of the social combustion theory and system dynamics, the paper sets up the causality diagram of development of the mass incidents, and analyzes comprehensively the role and influence of go,emment, interact users and of the network media and the event itself that play mass incidents in the process of occurrence and development in the realistic society; To simplify the model, it analyzes combustion effect of mass incidents from the attention and the amount of information, taking the ＂Kunming PX incident＂ as an example, the authors set up the simulations model to understand the in fluence of changes in microblog attention and number of microblog information in the mass incidents attention, and conclude that microb log fission spread, universality and platform＇s diversity are to directly or indirectly promote the increase of the mass incidents attention.