基于知识元的突发事件情景库研究

On Emergency Scenario Library Based on Knowledge Element

针对突发事件的应急管理与决策的研究,提出以知识元为基础的情景库理念,重点阐述了情景结构、情景库辅助决策的过程及相关规则,为情景构建提供了新的途径。本研究一方面补充了针对情景模型管理库的相关研究,建立了情景模型管理与应用的基本体系;另一方面为突发事件的应对提供了较为系统的决策支持储备库,降低了应对决策的风险与不确定性,为高效应对不同情景下的突发事件提供了基础。

Based on the research of emergency management and decisionmaking, this paper proposes a concept of scenario library based on knowledge element, focusing on the scenario structure, scenario library decision support process and related rules, it provides a new way for scenario building. On the one hand, this study complements the related research for scenario model management library, and es tablishes the system of scenario model management and application; on the other hand, it provides a more sYstematic decision support re pository for emergencies, reducing the risks and uncertainties of responsive decisionmaking, and thus provides a foundation for efficient response to emergencies under different scenarios.