基于状态空间模型的碳排放影响因素实证研究

Empirical Analysis of Carbon Emissions Influential Factors based on State Space Model

本文利用状态空间模型采用面板数据对碳排放的影响因素进行了实证研究。研究结果发现,碳排放影响因素主要包括:能源结构、能源排放强度、能源效率、经济发展因素、技术进步、产业结构、制度因素。经济发展水平对节能减排具有促进作用,且呈现不断增加的趋势;能源结构对节能减排具有促进作用,且影响呈现下降的趋势;技术进步对节能减排具有促进作用,且影响呈现了波动特征;产业结构对节能减排具有促进作用,且影响呈现不断增长的趋势;制度因素对节能减排也具有促进作用,且影响是逐渐在增大的。

Based on state space model, this paper takes empirical research on carbon emissions factors by using panel data. The results showed that carbon emissions factors include： energy structure, energy emissions intensity, energy efficiency, factors of economic development, technological progress, industrial structure, and institutional factoi~. I_evd of economic development has a role in promoting energy conservation, and showed an increasing trend; energy structure has a role in promoting energy conservation, and the impact is showing a downward trend; technological progress on energy conservation with the promotion of the role, and the impact presents the wave characteristic; industrial structure has a role in promoting energy conservation, and the impact is showing a growing trend; institutional factors also has a role in promoting energy conservation, and the impact is gradually increasing.