交强险保费的公平性与保险公司的市场竞争

Fairness of Compulsory Vehicle Liability Insurance Premium and Competition of Insurance Companies

基于2009-2011年保险公司在各个地区经营交强险业务的实际数据,本文分析了当前的交强险保费水平在不同业务类型和不同地区之间存在的不公平性问题。通过赔付率和费用率的相关性分析,揭示了交强险费用率的异常变化和可能受到的人为干预。定义和计算了交强险的业务结构因子、地区分布因子、固定业务结构的风险选择因子和固定地区分布的风险选择因子,对保险公司在交强险市场上的竞争能力和风险选择能力进行了比较分析。最后通过建立赔付率和费用率的广义线性模型,发现保险公司降低交强险赔付率最为有效的途径是提高它在各个地区的风险选择能力,其次是增加在低风险地区的经营网点。

Based on data of compulsory vehicle liability insurance in China during 2009 -2011, the paper finds that the current premium structure suffers from unfairness problem that exists among different regions and different types of vehicles. It is also found that expense ratios in different regions are artificially manipulated. By calculating vehicle types distribution factor, regions distribution factor, risk-selecting factor with constant vehicle types distribution, and riskselecting factor with constant regions distribution, the paper compares the competitive capabilities of insurance companies that operated compulsory vehicle liability insurance in China during 2009 -2011. Finally the paper establishes GLMs and finds some important variables that have statistically significant influences on loss ratios and expense ratios, and theses models also show that the most effective way to reduce a company＇ s loss ratio is to strengthen its capability of selecting risks and to increase its operating branches in low-risk regions.