对中国国家男足主教练执教特征的多元分析

Multivariate Analysis of Chinese National Men's Soccer Coach Teaching Characteristics

运用多元统计分析方法,以中国国家男子足球队主教练更换为个案,对高洪波、卡马乔执教的中国国家男子足球队技战术特征变化进行分析。统计结果表明:降维分析能够解决多重共线性问题,并能提取反映教练员执教特征与差异的重要因素;中国男足主教练的更迭是一种合理的交接,是为了促进中国男足的发展。在不同阶段、不同主教练面对的对手不同,对男足技战术调整的重点不同,是其战绩不一致的重要原因;单纯地通过胜率、战绩,或者是否实现短期目标来评判教练员执教水平有失公允。通过多元数据统计分析,结合比赛实际,能够更好地对教练员的执教特征、差异及水平进行客观、公正的评判。该方法具有较好的复制性,参考意义重大,但有待进一步完善。

Using the multivariate statistical analysis method, taking Chinese national men＇s football team coach replacement as a case study, this paper analyzes the Chinese national men＇s football team technical characteristics coached by Gao Hongbo and Jo- se Antonio Camacho alfraro. The statistical results show that the dimension reduction analysis can solve the multicollinearity problem, and reflect the coaches＇ teaching characteristics and important factors of difference. The changes of Chinese football coach is a reasonable handover in order to better promote the development of Chinese football. At different stages, different coach faces different opponents. The different tactics is the important reason for its inconsistent results. Simply using winning percentage, record, or whether to achieve short-term goals to judge coaches is unfair. Through multivariate statistical analysis, combined with the actual game, we can getter judge coaching characteristics, differences and levels of the objective and fair eval- uation. The method has good duplication and important referential meaning, but needs to be further improved.