中国人均卫生费用增长的影响因素分解

Decomposition of Factors Affecting China's Per-capita Health Expenditure Growth

少有文献研究中国人均卫生费用增长的各影响因素的贡献。文章采用Newhouse于1992年提出的"剩余法",计算了影响中国人均卫生费用增长的各因素的短期和长期贡献。结论是,收入提高和医疗技术进步是我国人均卫生费用增长的主要决定因素,老龄化对人均卫生费用增长的影响微乎其微,医疗保险曾对人均卫生费用增长产生负面影响。基于"剩余法"的计算框架,中美两国人均卫生费用增长的影响因素在趋势上没有差异,在程度上的差异主要来自于两国不同的经济发展阶段和制度变迁路径。建议未来将控制卫生费用快速增长的注意力从老龄化上移开,着重关注收入提高、医疗保险尤其是医疗技术进步等因素。

There are few papers focusing on the contribution of different factors affecting China＇ s per capita health expenditure growth. This paper employed ＂residual method＂ proposed by Newhouse in 1992 to calculate the contribution of various factors affecting China＇ s per capita health expenditure growth. The results were that improved income and medical technological progress were main drivers, the impact of population aging was negligible, and health insurance had a negative impact. Based on the ＂residual method＂, as to the factors affecting per capita health expenditure growth, China and the United States had the same trend but with different magnitudes, which resulted from the different stages of economic development and different institutional change paths in the two countries. The proposals were that the attention of controlling health expenditure growth should be moved from population aging to factors such as improved income, health insurance and especially medical technological progress and so on.