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欧元区:经济复苏举步维艰,主权信用面临进一步下行风险

Euro zone: Difficult Economic Recovery,Further Downside Risks for Sovereign Credit
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摘要 受持续的财政紧缩计划、缓慢的结构性改革、频繁的银行业危机以及希腊等国政局变动等因素影响,欧元区整体经济呈现进一步衰退趋势,主权信用环境面临再度恶化的风险。我们认为,未来短期内欧元区经济增长乏力趋势难以扭转,财政整顿、重振银行财务体系等深化改革措施依然任重道远,主权信用维持脆弱基本面,核心及外围国家主权信用将维持分化趋势。 Subject to ongoing austerity program, slow structural reforms, frequent banking crises and the political changes in Greece and other countries, the economy in Euro zone as a whole shows further declining trend, and the sovereign credit environment is to face the risk of relapse. We believe that the trend of weak economic growth in Euro zone in a short term will be difficult to reverse, that the financial measures to deepen reform such as fiscal con- solidation and reviving the banking financial system will have a long way to go, that sovereign credit fundamentals will remain weak, and that the sovereign credit tendency of the core and peripheral countries will be differentiated.
作者 曾诚 张丛
出处 《征信》 北大核心 2013年第8期12-15,共4页 Credit Reference
关键词 欧元区 信用风险 主权信用 经济前景 财政实力 Euro zone credit risks sovereign credit economic outlook financial strength
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参考文献4

  • 1Standard & Poor's. Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and Assumptions.Standard & Poor's Rating Methodology[OL].http://www.standardandpoors.com,2011.
  • 2Moody' s. Sovereign Bond Ratings:Moody' s Rating Methodology[OL].http://www.moodys.com,.
  • 3Fitch Ratings. Sovereign Rating Methodology[OL].http://www.fitchratings.com,.
  • 4中诚信国际.国际主权信用评级方法.

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