中国粮食市场与国际市场价格整合度研究——基于1997-2011年中美小麦和玉米价格的分析

Research on the integration degree of China's grain market and international market:Based on the price data analysis of wheat and corn of America and China from 1997 to 2011

2004年以来中国实行了除小麦、稻谷外的粮食购销市场化,为验证没有制定特殊限价政策的粮食(如玉米)和制定了严格最低限价政策的粮食(如小麦)与国际市场粮食价格的整合关系,采用计量经济学方法,分别对中国和美国1997-2011年间小麦、玉米的月度价格数据进行协整关系检验与Granger因果检验。结果表明,中国小麦价格的国际市场整合度不高,而玉米价格的国际市场整合度较高,成效较为显著。这验证了中国近年来对小麦、稻谷限价收购的粮食安全战略的有效性。但就长远而言,中国在强调粮食供应和粮农收入水平稳步提升的同时,亦应注重粮食产业乃至整个农业结构自身的造血功能的培养。

Since 2004, China has carried out a Grain Market expect wheat and rice. To verify the combination between grain of no special price policy formulated food （such as corn） and of a strict minimum price policy （such as wheat） and the international market price, using econometric methods, this article carries out co-integration test and Granger causality test of the monthly ptSce of wheat attd corn data during 1997-2011 of China and the United States respectively. The results show that the integration degree of the international market for China＇s wheat is low, while that of China＇s corn is high, which suggests the effectiveness of China＇s food security strategy. However, on the long-term, some measures must be taken to upgrade the food industry and agriculture structure as a whole while emphasizing on the steady improvement of food supply and income of grain farmer.