农村人口老龄化空间格局及影响因素研究

Spatial pattern and influencing factors of the rural population aging in China

在对中国农村人口老龄化空间分布进行自相关分析的基础上,运用空间计量模型定量分析了经济、医疗卫生、教育、计划生育政策及人口机械迁移等因素对农村人口老龄化的影响。研究结果显示:农村人口老龄化在地理上存在很显著的集聚效应,空间地理因素对其影响显著,并且整体上存在正的空间相关性,呈现东高西低、南高北低的空间格局。经济发展水平对农村人口老龄化直接影响最小,计划生育政策的影响最显著,各因素均与之同方向变动。因此,在制定计划生育政策时,应该充分考虑区域特征,因地制宜制定出符合区域实际的人口政策;大力发展农村地区养老保险事业;发展本地特色产业,将劳动力吸附在本地,降低老年人口系数。

This paper analyzed the space distribution of rural population aging in China, then used the quantitative spatial econometric model to analyze the impact of economic, health, education, one-child policy and movement of population on the rural elderly population coefficient in China. The results show that China＇s rural population aging has obvious agglomeration effect in geography, influence of geographical factors is significant, and east higher than west, south higher than north. The level of economic development has least direct effect on the rural population aging, and the most significant effect on it is the one-child policy, and every factor changes with it in the same direction. Finally, the paper puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions based on the conclusion of the study.