施马伦贝格病自然传入中国的风险分析

Risk Analysis on Natural Introduction of Schmallenberg Virus into China

为有效防范施马伦贝格病的传入，了解其流行趋势。以2011年-2012年的世界动物卫生组织（OIE）官方疫情数据为基础，采用地理信息系统，对疫病传播的时空数据进行初步分析。经过评估表明，该病在每年7月～9月传播速度最快，虫媒传播是其主要传播方式；自然传入中国的风险较高，自然条件下通过虫媒传播的速度约800km／年，经反刍动物通道传入中国约需2年～3年时间。中国应密切关注施马伦贝格病疫情的发展态势，积极开展防控技术研究，并加强重点区域的监测工作。

In order to effectively prevent the introduction of Schmallenberg virus into China and correctly explore its transmission trends, this article conducted a preliminary analysis on the spatiotemporal trans- mission of the disease, based on the data of OIE（2011--2012） with the support of geographic information system. The result was that there was a fast transmission of Schmallenberg virus between July to Septem bet, and the insect-borne transmission might be the main route. The introduction risk of Schmallenberg vi- rus to China was high, the speed for spreading the disease by vectors was about 800 km per year, it is esti mated that it needs about 2 to 3 years for the disease to invade China through the ruminants trade channel. So it is crucial to closely monitor the international disease information, actively carry out research on pre vention and control, and vigorously strengthen relevant surveillances in key areas.