基于灰色系统理论模型预测海底管道腐蚀剩余寿命

Residual Life Prediction to Submarine Pipeline Corrosion Based on the Gray System Theory Model

海底管道所处环境复杂,管道的腐蚀有许多不确定的因素,检测难度大,采用传统的统计学方法进行预测样本需求量大,检测成本高,预测效果并不理想。灰色系统理论模型能够使用较少样本,对系统进行灰色预测,并得到较为精确的预测结果。通过利用灰色系统理论模型对海底管道腐蚀剩余寿命的预测,可以基本掌握海底管道腐蚀剩余寿命,减少对海底管道的检测次数,降低检测成本,为管道的维护提供参考,保证管道的安全运营。

The environmental condition for submarine pipeline is complex, there are many uncertainty factors in pipeline corrosion, together with much difficult in detection. A large number of specimen needed in prediction by traditional statistical method, and the detection cost high, result in the forecast effect is not ideal. The gray system theory model can utilize a few of specimen to conduct grey prediction, and a more accurate prediction result can be achieved. Through prediction of submarine pipeline corrosion residual life by adopting gray system theory model, it can basically master the residual life of submarine pipeline corrosion, reduce the testing number for submarine pipeline, lower detection cost, and provide reference for pipeline maintenance, ensure the safety of pipeline operation.